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How emerging markets could make this economic recovery different…
How emerging markets could make this economic recovery different…
Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: All
We all seem to be waiting for the economy to turn around, and many of us have given up hope in a sense. We hear it regularly, including on my blog, “… is this the new normal?”
I think it’s a legitimate question. This recovery, if you can call it that, has been jobless and some would say almost hapless, seeming to be knocked back down by bad news coming from all fronts at all times.
Amidst all the bad news, there was a snippet of good news that could make a big difference when and how things turn around.
The rapid growth of emerging markets
This is something we really have not seen before on the scale that we have now. The impact of this on the employment market could be significant and may be the engine of economic growth that we all need to pull ourselves out of the recession and start adding jobs to the economy.
Take a look at the top 10 rising economies according to the Business Insider from March 2011.
- Nigeria
- India
- Iraq
- Bangladesh
- Vietnam
- Philippines
- Mongolia
- Indonesia
- Sri Lanka
- Egypt
Total projected GDP by 2050: $135.05 Trillion
Average year over year growth: 7.3%
I bet many of you are surprised by at least half of the countries on the list and by at least one country that is missing from the list,China. To be fair, this list is a ranking of year over year growth vs. total GDP or size of the economy, but what I find interesting is that the total GDP that they represent is still significant and when combined, significantly more than China’s.
For comparison, and to bring to light how much GDP is missing with large, still emerging, but “slower” growth economies,China’s GDP is projected to be $123 Trillion by 2040. In 2050, the top 5 countries in the G20 are projected to beChina, US,India,JapanandBrazilin that order, which points to the fact that emerging markets are widespread.
Manufacturing jobs
One of the areas that could see a significant increase in business opportunities are within the manufacturing sector. In many parts of the world, US products are still viewed to be of high quality and value. Just look at China and how American cars are viewed as a luxury item.
One question is how much this will translate to a positive impact on the US job market. Will it create many direct manufacturing jobs or will it create a smaller number of administrative and professional level jobs only because the American product is made overseas?
The other question is whether or not American companies can react quickly enough to get products that appeal to these emerging markets into the hands of their consumers to build and sustain brand loyalty. Fortunately I think we are doing fairly well in this arena, but we cannot be complacent.
Research and development jobs
One area that the US still dominates is research and development. While other countries continue to make progress, fortunately so do we!
These jobs will become more critical as we need to make products that appeal to more and more different markets to maintain market share, gain competitive advantage and continue to build brand loyalty.
So these jobs will include many of the areas that immediately come to mind (software, consumer electronics, etc.) and many that do not immediately come to mind (food products, beverages, home goods, consumer products, etc.)
Shipping/transportation and logistics jobs
Always an early indicator of a economy reviving, we could see growth here early on as companies ship more products to new markets, demand for individuals within these areas would naturally follow.
Import/Export jobs
If theUS is able to position its products to appeal to these emerging markets, demand for Import and Export Professionals could increase significantly, with the Import side depending on what products these emerging economies produce and whether or not Americans will have a need for them…
The economy in general
While the segments I spoke about will likely see a significant increase, trade and wealth generation (even in emerging economies) create jobs. So many other sectors of the economy will see some increase in job growth.
Conclusion
I think we all agree that this economy has some way to go before everyone is back to work, but this could be the light at the end of the tunnel.
Part of the challenge we have now is that we cannot rely on domestic consumer spending to pull the economy out of recession because all of us have spending constraints compared to 5 years ago.
A real possibility is the increase in consumer spending coming from overseas, with emerging markets, notEuropeleading the way and established Asian economies following closely behind. If that creates enough growth for theUSconsumer to feel confident again, we could see a very robust, but different, economic recovery than those of the past.
And of course that all means, the war for talent returns… this time, with some new fronts!
Feel free to share your thoughts!
© 2011 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved
How placement firms can work better with corporate recruiters and how corporate recruiters need to step up.
How placement firms can work better with corporate recruiters and how corporate recruiters need to step up.
Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: Your Organizations Ability to Source Candidates
Hardly a day goes by without receiving some sort of pitch from a placement firm. I think this isn’t a big difference from anyone else in a leadership role within a Recruiting department, but I think what would surprise some people is what I hear from corporate recruiters that makes me want to slam my head into my desk.
So this month I thought I would give my unscientific top five things that each side needs to do better list.
Top five things that placement firms can do to work with corporate recruiters
- Know yourself and/or your organization
If your firm specializes in helping organizations that have little to no corporate recruiting capability, or does especially well helping organizations in regions that people don’t want to move to or a certain size of organization, etc. learn that, know that and own that. I can’t tell you how many times I talk to firms that in the course of our review I determine do a good job placing people, but only because the companies they work with have no recruiting team to speak of. - Figure me out before calling
I don’t expect you, as someone that is cold calling me, to know all about me (although it’s pretty easy to find out a lot about people nowadays), but at least know what industry I am in, what openings I have and a little about my teams capability. For example, on a regular basis I get calls and emails from companies that want to place people with me for Software Engineering or Electrical Engineering… well since I work for a hospital system it’s a waste of my time to even return your call now isn’t it? - Just because I have an opening doesn’t mean I need help
I can’t stand it when I open a position and an hour later I get a call from someone saying “…I see that you just posted xyz position open, do you need help?” Or I see you have (fill in the blank for an entry level position) open, can we work on that? In the first case, it would be rare that I would feel that we needed outside help and that I would post the position without already talking to someone, in the second case, I honestly should be fired it I can’t find an entry level person. - Don’t be clueless
If I am going to go to a hiring manager and recommend that we use you, do you really think if you call me and you know nothing about my company, the role, the industry, the profession and already have presented a plan to fill the role that goes beyond posting something on a bunch of job boards (guess what- I know how to do that too) that you are going to be the one I recommend? Don’t waste my time, but if you want to waste yours more power to you and call someone else… - Work within my process (if there is one)
I know you hate this, but we do need to have some kind of process in place. Most of the time, this shouldn’t get in the way and sometimes it ends up benefiting all involved. You will also appreciate the next section though, because this is one of the things I address on the corporate side as well.
Top five things that corporate recruiters can do to work with headhunters (surprise- some of this is similar to what is above!)
- Know yourself and/or your organization
For the corporate side of things, we need to know our organizations, the openings, the managers, the requirements (tangible and intangible). We also need to know what we are good at as a recruiting team and plan and react accordingly when positions are open. So if we aren’t strong recruiting certain specialties, we need to still put our best effort in and get better at it, but also need to come up with plans that probably include placement firms to meet the objective of finding the talent we need, regardless of where it comes from. Many organizations know when they have a tough position to work on, but they fail to do anything about it. - Let go of “us vs. them”
I sort of understand where this comes from… the adversarial relationship that some corporate recruiters hold on to. This is a classic example of you get what you incent. In the past, many corporate recruiting departments looked at needing a placement firm as a sign that they failed because many times that is indeed how it was viewed by leadership and internal clients. I think this has largely changed because of the complexity of the workforce and the acknowledgement that everyone cannot be good at everything. Placement firms do need to be used diligently (I would not be employed if suddenly 80% of the placements came from outside firms), but the adversarial view needs to go and good placement firms need to viewed as partners and an extension of the internal teams capability. I can’t stand it when a corporate recruiter will keep doing things they know have very little chance of working just to keep from using an outside firm. - Get out of the way
Corporate Recruiters also need to know when to get out of the way. We have a role in helping with the selection of the placement firm, negotiating the contracts, setting up reasonable processes, etc., but beyond that the gate keeper mentality needs to go. Once the contract is in place, let the placement firm talk to the hiring manager directly, there is no value in the corporate recruiter relaying this level of information. Have the placement firm submit directly to the hiring manager and have them cc: you so the candidate can be checked out internally (did they recently apply, are they a former employee?) and set up regular short status meetings so all those involved can stay on top of issues. Beyond that step aside! - Don’t be clueless
Nothing drives me nuts like when I ask a Recruiter to tell me about the role they have been working on for 2 months and all they can do is stumble around while they read me the posting… really? Well since we’ve submitted 20 people that meet those requirements, perhaps it’s time to actually pin the manager down on what they really want! We need to know the department, the manager, the role, the skills needed, etc. If we don’t then we have failed and certainly if the placement firm is not able to find this out, they will also fail. - Create a reasonable process
I touched on this a bit in number 3, but it’s worth emphasizing. Make sure the process you have is reasonable. This starts with a reasonable contract and as little intervention as possible by you. Good people can only do good work when they are allowed to by not having others get in the way. I think it’s reasonable to sit in on the meeting or conference call as the placement firm talks to the hiring manager (you will probably learn some things), but it’s not reasonable to be the gate keeper and not allow the placement firm to speak to the manager at all. It is reasonable to ask to be copied on submissions so you can check on past interactions with the candidate (if any), but I would be cautious in requiring that resumes be submitted to you and then you in turn send them on to the manager.
Conclusion
I certainly understand where a lot of the problems with the corporate recruiter placement firm relationship come from. Past measures of success (or failure) are among them, but there is an unfortunate number of placement firms that are not interested in being anyone’s partner and are only interested in fees and still more that are not malicious, but are either poorly run or are trying too hard to be what they are not.
On the corporate side, the problems also abound, with Recruiters that are nothing more than administrators that process paper to those that have no clue what their internal clients need to those that simply insecure.
Successful organizations realize that there are plenty of problems on both sides and work toward resolving them by having a strong review process in place for placement firms and in coaching and sometimes removing recruiters when they do not align themselves with the greater needs of the organization.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them my way!
© 2011 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved
Does .jobs matter?
Does .jobs matter?
Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: Branding and candidate awareness, Your organizations ability to source candidates
Somewhat recently, there has been a lot of discussion about .jobs. Much of the discussion that I have seen has little to do with whether or not this is a good idea or not. Most of it centers on the controversy between SHRM, Employ Media who SHRM partnered with to manage the top level domain and ICANN, the organization that essentially manages major functions of the internet.
ICANN has brought action against Employ Media stating they are violating the .jobs charter and brings into question whether or not SHRM got in over their heads and/or partnered with the right people.
I think there is a larger more important question that may make all of this largely irrelevant- Does .jobs matter?
For those of you that aren’t familiar, .jobs is a top level domain (TLD) similar to the more popular .com, .edu and .gov. ICANN released .jobs to SHRM with the thought that the leading HR organization would be able to manage the registration process more effectively than the existing process that has been in place for all other domains. This process is where domain registration companies take registration requests and if it’s available the registration is yours.
On a side note that I have to point out, when you register a .jobs domain, you first go to Employ Media’s site, which then has… wait for it…links to the same domain registration companies that handle all the other registrations anyway, now that’s value add SHRM- thanks for adding needless layers and now legal complication to things!
Side bar over, back to the .jobs domain… The intended purpose for .jobs was to become a “shortcut” that people could use to get to career sites. So a company like Ford could have the domain ford.jobs.
On the surface this sounds interesting, but I have to wonder, who’s been wanting this?
Employers?
As an employer, I don’t see this as a huge benefit… my career site is decent, we market it well using a wide variety of tools, etc. It’s reasonably well designed and most people can find what they are looking for.
On the other hand, the .jobs domain is very inexpensive to register and you could simply have the .jobs URL point to your career site and you’re pretty well covered. So there isn’t anything compelling against getting it.
Job seekers?
It’s pretty rare that candidates can’t find a companies website and/or the jobs on it… if they can’t the sites usually poorly constructed, or the jobs aren’t listed or the candidate is computer illiterate. So some may be interested in the convenience of the .jobs domain, but I am not sure people would not seek positions on non-.jobs domains in the same manner I could eventually see job seekers not apply for jobs with companies that lack a mobile or social media presence.
Job boards?
Certainly the job board industry isn’t interested in it. In fact, they are leading the charge against the .jobs domain because they see it as a threat. Just imagine a day where job seekers can find jobs on corporate career sites or by using something like SEO, SEM, Indeed, SimplyHired, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn… if only these things were a reality … oh wait… that’s right, they are aren’t they? Well job boards you keep chasing away the big scary .jobs domain while everyone else eats your lunch…
Conclusion
So I guess there isn’t anyone that is clamoring for this. While there are a lot of companies that have their .jobs domain (including mine) I think they have it because it is cheap and simple.
And just because a lot of companies have .jobs domains doesn’t mean that it will become anything significant or strategically or tactically important.
What’s my opinion? .jobs doesn’t matter, but it will be widely used for a time and then fade away. I think it’s an idea whose time has long passed that is only being saved by its simplicity and very modest cost.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them my way!
© 2011 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved
Where is the employment market heading?
Where is the employment market heading?
Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: All
I was recently attending the San Diego County Economic Roundtable which takes place annually. If I remember right, I have only attended one other one, but I plan on making this a regular even on my calendar because it afford me the opportunity to move outside of a pure employment market perspective and look at the economy from other points of view with some respected local Economists and industry experts.
The majority of the information was locally focused, but our experience is probably somewhat similar in more ways than not to other regions. Sure the numbers may be different, but the trends are similar.
Today I would like to share some of the information that I gathered and what I felt would be good food for thought. I was writing my notes furiously at some points, so if you find numbers that are different than mine, it could be simply a note taking error. But even in those instances, the trend and scope of differences, declines and increase are likely to be important as it was only in cases where I was surprised at the number or the scope that I made it a point to notate it.
Consumption is down
We all knew that consumption was down, but recently we have heard the improved sales and improved consumer spending numbers. We all tend to forget that those numbers are relative to fairly recent times, and recent times have not been good. So yes, the numbers are better, but compared to the depths of the recession in most cases, not to where we used to be.
So how much is consumption down? According to one Economist that was citing nationally recognized data, were down 20-25%. That is huge to say the least!
This explains some of why we keep hearing mixed messages. On the one hand we hear spending it up and on the other we hear that unemployment is only going down by a marginal percentage.
Savings is up and debts are being lowered
As a country, we are (or at least were) saving more of the money that we didn’t spend. Our savings rate went from an average of 1% of income to 6% of income (another staggering number). We also started to pay down debts, which also put a curb on spending. That is because most of us need to cut from somewhere to pay down debts and if we were saving more, that only leaves one place to cut and that is spending.
The challenge with saving more and paying down debt is that it does not create very many jobs.
Bad was much worse than I thought
Although I keep an eye on our local market, I did not realize how bad, bad was during this recession!
Prior to this recession, the San Diego employment market lost 8,000 jobs during the worst quarter of the worst recession on record at the time. During this recession, the San Diego employment market lost 30,000 jobs during the worst quarter.
Some may argue that San Diego is larger now, so the comparison is not apples to apples. While this explains a little of the difference, let’s not kid ourselves either, San Diego has not more than tripled in size since the early 1990’s.
Housing vs. employment- the chicken or the egg?
We’ve heard many times that housing won’t bounce back until employment strengthens, but this will be tough since housing is such a significant part of our economy and employment market.
If that is the case, are we doomed to lethargic growth in employment forever? Probably not, but without housing, which is dependent on employment, the recovery is going take much longer.
What we may see a housing “recovery” of sorts that differs from what we are expecting, where homeowners that have decided they can’t wait for their home to rebuild equity before moving up will instead invest further into their homes making wide ranges of improvements. These improvements could be relatively minor (painting the house, landscaping) to something more significant (new pool, addition, etc.).
For many homeowners this could be smart because it would increase the value of the home and extend their satisfaction with their home to weather the end of this downturn. It would also be easier for them to potentially get a loan for a new pool vs. buying a new home with the prospect of trying to sell their old home.
While this would not have the same effect on the employment market, it would have a positive impact. When combined with some housing markets coming back and investors ready to buy properties ahead of the recovery, we could see housing start to come back before employment in a different way than expected.
Things to watch for are improved sales at home improvement stores (which we may be starting to see based on results for Home Depot and Lowes) and other business associated with home improvement.
Heading slowly in the right direction
Despite where we’ve been we are heading in the right direction. I still stick with my prediction that by year’s end the national unemployment level will be somewhere close to the 8.0 to 8.5% range, but it is clear that we have some distance to cover.
Full employment is defined by some as 5.5% or lower. So even by years end, if we are at 8.5% we are still far from full employment.
For some groups of people and some regions, recovery seems to be closer at hand.
For example, the unemployment rate for those with a Bachelors degree is less than 5%. If you’re one of the many with a Bachelors degree that is looking for work, I know that the rate doesn’t matter much, but it is better than the 15% unemployment experienced by those without a degree.
In addition, there are regions of the country that have employment markets that are coming back to life. Placement firms, temporary services, etc. are also all reporting that they are getting busier and busier.
As a country we need to generate between 100K and 150K new jobs per month just to take care of those entering the employment market, so hopefully we will see these groups and regions that are recovering more quickly help pull us more quickly in the right direction.
Conclusion
Where are we all headed? For what it’s worth, I think we are still headed for a slow employment market recovery that will grow from certain demographic groups and regions of the country. Housing may come back in the form of home improvement and then investors, followed by traditional buyers and may slightly lead the employment markets recovery. If I were to look into a crystal ball, I think we won’t see full employment (as defined by a 5.5% or lower unemployment rate) until the second half of 2013 at the earliest.
Unfortunately I think this recession’s biggest victims are high paying jobs that only require a high school diploma. There will still be some, but every recession takes more and more of them away and this may be the biggest blow to them yet.
© 2011 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved
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